1. Monday: The crackdown was in full effect on Monday and the demonstrations continue to dwindle, but this may be far from over. Indeed, reports indicate that Mousavi has called for a national strike on Tuesday. We’ll have to wait and see if it this actually plays out.
2. Important Lessons in History – 1963 and Now: The protests and the subsequent crackdown may have reverberations for years to come. In 1963, Khomeini led an uprising against the Shah and was exiled for 14 years for his agitation. More importantly, the ferocity of the crackdown led to the deaths of anywhere between 15,000-20,000 people. Although the movement was crushed, the repercussions would haunt the Shah’s regime until it was finally deposed in 1979. For starters, the brutality of the suppression convinced many that peaceful protest was ineffective in the face of a ruthless machine so two major guerilla groups emerged in the aftermath, the Mujahideen-e Khalq and the Fadaiyan-e Khalq, both of which launched a guerilla war against the Shah in the 1970s and contributed to the aura of sacrifice and radicalization that greatly impacted the people’s decision to fight for revolution in 1978-1979. Secondly, the barbarity of the crackdown in 1963 pushed many Iranians against the regime as the Shah’s government exposed itself for what it was, a dictatorship that did not represent the will of the Iranian people and was willing to kill them en masse to preserve its own hide. The suppression taking place in Iran now is nothing compared to what happened in 1963, but it’s still early and the regime has the capacity and the will to take harsher measures. In the weeks, months, and years ahead, we shall see if such parallels between now and 1963 are sound.
3. Her Name was Neda Agha Sultan (1983-2009): “She had been sitting with her music teacher in a car, stuck in traffic, when she decided to get out because of the heat. ‘She got out of the car for just for a few minutes [and] that’s when she was shot dead,’ said Kaspin Makan. Mr Makan quoted eyewitnesses as saying she appeared to have been targeted deliberately by ‘paramilitaries in civilian clothing’. He added that officials had prevented mourners holding a memorial service at a mosque on Monday. ‘The authorities are aware that everybody in Iran and throughout the whole world knows about her story,’ he told the BBC. ‘They were afraid that lots of people could turn up.’
4. Khamenei’s Appointment as Supreme Leader in 1989: I recently found some rare archival footage on Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader after Khomeini’s death in 1989. It’s interesting to see how Rafsanjani, now one of Khamenei’s most ardent opponents, championed him at this decisive and historic meeting. See the video here.
5. Street Battles – Little Victories Count: See the video here.
6. Losing Faith in the System: “Khamenei also said, ‘Trust in the Islamic Republic became evident in these elections.’ In fact I believe the loss of trust by millions of Iranians who’d been prepared to tolerate a system they disliked, provided they had a small margin of freedom, constitutes the core political earthquake in Iran. Moderates who once worked the angles are now muttering about making Molotov cocktails and screaming their lungs out after dusk.”
7. As’ad AbuKhalil on the Western Media’s Hypocrisy: [Although I think the coverage on Iran is necessary and important, the hypocrisy is obvious in that the protests and reform movements that take place in countries that are America’s allies do not nearly receive the same kind of attention and most certainly should!] “But the hypocrisy is quite stunning. They are admiring the dare of the [Iranian] population when the Palestinian population shows more dare. They are outraged at the level of repressive crackdown by the regime when Israeli crackdowns on demonstrations are far more brutal and savage. They are admiring the participation of women in a national movement, when Palestinian women led the struggle from as far back as the 1930s (see the private papers of Akram Zu`aytir). They are outraged that the Iranian government is repressing media coverage, when the Israeli government is far more strict: when it was perpetrating slaughter in Gaza few months ago, the Western press was not allowed any freedom of movement except the hill of death where Michael Oren led reporters to watch Israeli brutal assualt on the Palestinian civilian population from a distance. The media coverage in the US and UK prove beyond a doubt that increasingly the Western press has been serving as a tool for the various Western government. If the government cheers, the media cheer, if the government condemns, the media condemns, etc. And would the Western media ever be as unrestrained in its glamorization and glorfication of demonstrators and demonstrations in Egypt or Saudi Arabia or Jordan as they are now?”
‘Color’ revolution fizzles in Iran
Last week’s power-play proved that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s capacity to command Iran’s seemingly explosive political situation was never really in doubt as it thwarted rival Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s attempt to rally the clerical establishment. Meanwhile, United States President Barack Obama played it cool, never going back on his pledge to directly engage Tehran. – M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 22,’09)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF23Ak02.html
Abu khalil is nothing but an opportunist, he is an amazing writter, but he is an opportunist who would try to down play and sacrifice anything for the sake of Arab nationalisim. He is not the only Arab who is not happy about the events in Iran and of course he will try to downplay or somehow defame the protests through powerful words. Lets not forget, Ahmadinejad is almost more popular than any other Arab leader in the Arab world (I wonder why-it might have something to do w/ his denial for holocaust) Don’t forget, he is an Arab and Arab causes and national interest comes first for him. I wonder, has he written anything in praising those brave protesters? Even if he does want to talk about protests in Israel and media coverage, there are major differences between palestinian movements and Iranian movements which I will not go into because doing so will only divert the attention from the post.
who the hell is AbuKhalil? What are you talking about?
amir check the link, the blogger (aka pouya) has it on the site; he is a very well known blogger and his blog is called: Angry Arab;
abu khalil has been supporting the protests, actually, and has voiced his disagreement with some arab leftists who are backing ahmadi because of his posturing against the west. i dont think the above defames the protests, but points to a conversation we have to have at some point: why this coverage for iran? why didnt bbc go green when they were banned from covering gaza from the inside last winter, etc? i think his answer/analysis, while still shallow at this point, is right.
Abukhalil also shows nothing but disdain for Ahmadinejad and the entire Iranian political system and believes in it being overthrown. Arash, yet again, you dont have the slightest clue as to what you are talking about.
Arash, Shirin Ebadi supports the Palistinian cause. She has also fought for Iranians and women in particular. Is she bad too?
http://madreseyema.blogfa.com/post-291.aspx
Commentators are “explaining” the Iran elections based on their own illusions, delusions, emotions, and vested interests. Whether or not the poll results predicting Ahmadinejad’s win are sound, there is, so far, no evidence beyond surmise that the election was stolen. However, there are credible reports that the CIA has been working for two years to destabilize the Iranian government
http://www.countercurrents.org/roberts220609.htm
there is evidence of fraud. most people ive spoken with argue it is totally possible ahmadi won, but definately not with 64%. anyway, cia has been working more than 2 years. but they cant covertly plan massive demonstrations that cut across all kinds of socioeconomic sectors–not just the upper-class. thats not the cia’s style. 🙂 this isnt about mousavi vs ahmadinejad–even neda’s fiancee talked about her not being a supporter for either.
When did i ever say it was american orchestrated??!!
if youre talking to me, happy face, i was addressing pual.
SDF! i dont know why your caps comment was addressed towards me. i was saying these protests are NOT because of cia influence. and that i dont believe ahmadi won by a landslide. and that i believe, most likely, a fraud took place. i was disagreeing with pual. so, really, i dont know what “illogical argument” you convinced yourself i made.
that said, “exit polls” are NOT cold hard facts. ballots are.
you know what else are cold hard facts? sale of arms to iraq during the iran-iraq war and policy decisions aimed at weakening the new regime (which backfired), cia training of savak, 1953, etc etc etc. all of which is now accepted, common, and admitted knowledge. regardless, thats not my concern at this point. you brought up over 30 years, not me.
i havent been here long, but i think now i know not to respond to any further posts, sdf. it doesnt seem they are read clearly anyway. thanks for the convo.
Arash how can you talk about reasonable people when you deny so much oppression yourself? I bet you are celebrating that remax is selling Palestinian absentee property?
I never denied oppression of palestinian, I just say it is not Israel’s fault, that’s all
There is Arash’s fantasy world, and then the real world:
“t apparently takes American pressure to get the Israeli military to allow 350 cows into Gaza today — the first in nine months. This, it should be noted, is for 1.5 million human beings.
However, the Israeli military’s “Coordinator of (Israeli) Government Activities in the Territories” (COGAT) has reportedly determined — after a supposedly-careful and somehow-scientific analysis redolent of other notoriously disastrous historical precedents involving social engineering experiments on a captive population — that 300 cows per week are the minimum needed in Gaza in order to avoid malnutrition, and a “humanitarian crisis” (which U.S. President Barack Obama said in Germany in early June already exists).”
really? r we seriously going back to Israeli/Palestinian issue now? Come on Nazanin and then you claim you don’t want to divert the attention. Amazing!
Funny part is that I am the one who is trying focus on Iran’s issue and subject matter of the post and I am the one who get erased. lol
Arash Kahen the Occupation Soldier aka SDF, nothing you say about Iran is important simply because whatever you have to say, you say with Israel in mind (and also because you don’t know Iran’s history and you never ever EVER provide credible sources, esp when it comes to the issue of Palestine or anything else that is important). You are a Zionist extremist who enlisted in the Israeli Occupation Forces and committed your services to the oppression of the Palestinian people. Please don’t talk about Iran, it’s struggles, or the issue of freedom in Iran. By doing so, you simply taint the movement with your Zionist objectives. No thanx. Iran is for those who care about Iran for the sake of Iran and Iranians, not simply to advance some outrageous racist colonial ideology.
And stop commenting on every single post of mine 100 times each. Did you not get enough attention when you were a child? You do NOT add to the discussion, you just pollute it with your bias, hidden agenda, and your inability to speak clearly.
You have your own blog, stick to it, even if nobody visits it. Work on it, work on your delivery, work on your brain, then maybe someday someone may visit it. Until then, stop trying to monopolize the debate and stop trying to make yourself or your fascist ideology the center of attention. That’s it, good night.
I have recently been following ipouya blog, mostly because I was impressed by his anayltical skills and understanding of all aspects of Iran society. Yes .. iran has secular aspects, even athiests, and it has religous Iranians to. And he one of the few who seem to respect all of those aspects. So if you really have a problem with his commentary or how he manages his blog.. why do you keep coming back?
Wow, Pouya are you Arash’s father? You just scolded him like he pooped on the carpet.
This was quite funny. Arash delves into the topic of nukes:
“This is fairly simple: YOU DO NOT ALLOW ISLAMIC NATIONS WITH FUNDAMENTALIST TENDECIES TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPON. Is it racist or Islamo-phobic to say that? Yes, but….”
Of course, this is coming from someone who is pretty fundamentalist himself.
Then of course, he has the “real” story behind General Musharaf:
“Democrats and numb-nuts Lefties in this country, caused Musharaf to step down through their constant protests. They did it not because of democracy and what is right, they did it to defame Bush and get rid of Bush’s allies.”
You fool!! The Pakistanis impeached him through their courts to get rid of him and Bush couldn’t have cared less.
So actually, Arash, I can’t listen to what you say about Iran not simply because of what you say about Israel, but your terrible record on other issues. When I tell you that Mousavi is responsible for Neda, you tell me I’m blaming her. You imbecile, Mousavi is the man who laid a firm foundation for what Iran is today. Now he is using the youth to change it. Rafsanjani holds the fate of Iran in his hands. He could kick sweep Khamenei and save some more Nedas. Otherwise, like Pouya said, Neda will be the tip of the iceberg.
Arash,
To answer your question about Reza Pahlavi, I think it’s pretty obvious why he held a press conference at the NPC yesterday AND dragged his ass out to the White House fence to protest. He wants to appear “in solidarity” and “willing to lead”. At the press conference he called himself a natural leader of this democratic movement. He is forever a moron, and has no future as a leader in Iran. But watching the way he will be laughed out for attempting to appear brave will be entertaining to say the least.
Also, these rumors about cancer are correctly called rumors. However, Rafsanjani has never publicly commented like this, and as much as I hate him, I think that what he’s saying makes sense. During the Friday sermon, Kham said that he is unhealthy (not just relating to his hand). I think that what Rafsanjani has charged is very serious – MONARCHY in IRAN!?!?!?! Kham is going down and fast, but not without a fight for sure.
He did have prostate cancer, but that is a very treatable illness.
I really doubt Khamenie is going down fast, he has broad support among the believers in the system, much greater then Rafsanjani. If you think their is violence now, imagine if a coup against Khamenie happens, a lot of people will hit the streets. While their are a lot right now in opposition on the streets,if this needed too, his supporters will hit the streets too. And that is the worst case scenario that can take place. I read an article before the elections, in the LA times, in which it said for this election, Rafsanjani had hired 55k people to mount this campaign. His son said, ” we are like the interior ministry, but we work in the shadows. He also said this is game of chess, Nejad is just a pawn our real target is Kham. This was two days before election, I was very alarmed by it. And Rafsanjani is last person to make allegation of a “family dynasty” of Kham in Iran.It is his people that are and have been appointed to positions all over Iran’s establishment.
=) I think that AbuKhalil’s support of the movement is half hearted. Actually to be honest, I think I sense some “jealousy” on his part, “They are admiring the dare of the [Iranian] population when the Palestinian population shows more dare. They are outraged at the level of repressive crackdown by the regime when Israeli crackdowns on demonstrations are far more brutal and savage.” I whole heartedly support the movement in Palestine, but to say one people has more “dare” than the other is doing the Iranians a disservice. The movements are not same, one is population is fighting off oppression from an occupier, the other is fighting oppression against their own gov/people. Both are legitimate and “daring” struggles in their own right. I would think that AbuKhalil, being as smart/brilliant as he is would be able to understand this distinguishment. In another post, he says “I can’t support a movement that writes its signs in English, in order to please the White Man, and I can’t be in the same trench with Fox News. Yet, I support the overthrow of a regime that fed its people foreign policy slogans and religious jargon and (along with Saudi Arabia) fought all manifestations of secularism, leftism, and feminism in the Middle East since 1979 (much earlier in the case of Saudi Arabia). ”
Again…so he supports the overthrow of the regime but not the people behind the movement??…seems anti-populist if you ask me and hypocritical on his part. Its okay to support a movement even though its being covered by CNN/American news…it doesn’t make the coverage itself less legitimate. I wish CNN/MSNBC covered Palestine, but it doesn’t, but that also doesn’t mean that I will feel jealousy/anger against news media when they actually do a good job once in awhile.
Z, do you think that if Raf uses the assembly to oust Kham, there will be violence? It would be contradictory to Kham’s recent promotion of managing this disaster within the framework of “qanun”. How would he assemble the military if he is no longer in a position of power?
Raf has zero popularity among the people. As demonstrated in his parlimentary election loss followed by his presidential election loss. Kham does have a pretty strong following, if it seen as Raf removed him just because Kham sided with Nejad. Their will be a lot of angry people, and i just dont see them allowing it to happen quietly. Anyhow I think Raf had his chance, he failed at it. Now he will just try to maintain what power he has now. I truly beleive that Nejad caught some really big fish in his anti corruption net, and many in the “establishment” didnt trust Kham to keep it quite for them.. and so they did thier outmost to stop Nejad. YOu can call him whatever you want, but their is one thing Nejad isnt, and that corrupt. And over the years .. the biggest grevience i have seen among Iranians about the government. is the corruption. SO i hope he continues his anti corruption probe.. no matter where it leads to.