Libya: Revolutionary Zeal

Qaddafi’s counter-offensive against rebel-held territories have dominated the news in the past couple days. There is no doubt that unlike Mubarak or Ben Ali, Qaddafi is willing to kill his people en masse to give life to his regime. That is not to say that the Mubarak and Ben Ali regimes didn’t kill, but they didn’t do so in such a manner.  Reports suggest the Qaddafi’s refusal to quit and his counter-attacks have slowed the momentum of the revolution. Whereas before, cities fell to rebels rather quickly, now people are digging in for a longer and more protracted struggle.  I do think that although the rebels have suffered some setbacks, they will succeed in the long run because of a number of reasons. First, although the regime has far more superior firepower and is more organized in terms of its ability to wage war, the revolutionaries have strength in numbers. Qaddafi is hated, not because of what we think out here in the west, but because of the mere fact that he’s ruled for more than four decades with an iron fist and has embezzled state funds to the benefit of his family and cronies, and Libyans are fully cognizant of  his corruption, dungeons and torture chambers, and senile ways. Second, the revolutionaries fight with zeal. Not all, but many soldiers are fighting because they are ordered to do so. In the long run, those who follow orders face a commitment deficit in relation to those who fight for revolution. In other words, revolutionary zeal gives the rebels a decisive edge.  Third, the rebels have a major disadvantage when it comes to military operations and basic training. Some reports suggest that most of those rebels that have been injured in fighting have sustained those injuries mainly because of a lack of experience in handling weaponry.  This I feel is a short term problem. As the war drags on, not only will the rebels improve their military capabilities, but they will adapt them in ways that will make up for the shortcomings of their weapons’ sophistication.  Four, the same applies to the leadership. As the conflict continues, people will emerge from the rebellion who have a natural talent at organization and will evolve into capable rebel commanders so whatever criticisms people are directing at the former justice minister turned opposition leader may be fleeting. He may be a stepping stone to a more competent battle-hardened commander.  Lastly, as the showdown endures, Qaddafi grows more and more isolated internationally, which means that while the rebellion hardens he will have less capital to enlist support from the outside.  In other words, although uncertain, if I was a betting man I would put my money down on the side of the rebellion.

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Calls for End to Bahrain monarchy

Will the avowed ‘Beacon of Liberty,” the United States, support the people who want to create a republic or the regime, a monarchy that enjoys absolute powers?  Thus far, the Obama Administration has violated its own core principles by aligning itself w the regime. al-Jazeera reports: Three Shia opposition groups in Bahrain have announced their intent on toppling the Sunni monarchy and setting up a republic.

The declaration on Tuesday is likely to raise already inflamed tensions in the country, ahead of a planned march on the royal court.

Labelled the “Coalition for a Bahraini Republic,” the group said in a statement that they “declare a tripartite coalition between the Wafa, Haq and Bahrain Freedom Movement that has chosen to fight for a complete downfall of the  regime, and the establishment of a democratic republic in Bahrain”.

“The coalition believes that the main demand of the popular revolution is the downfall of the current oppressive regime and the establishment of a democratic republic that expresses the desires of the people.”

Anti-government protests in the Shia-majority, Sunni-ruled country entered the 23rd day on Tuesday, amid a wave of pro-democracy unrest that has gripped the region for weeks and toppled regimes in Egypt and Tunisia.

Other Bahraini opposition groups, including the main Shia Wefaq group, have stopped short of demanding outright regime change, instead calling for major reforms including an elected parliament “with full legislative powers”.

“We are different in the demands, but it doesn’t mean we can’t cooperate,”  Haq leader Hassan Mashaima told AFP news agency.

“I believe that … there is not much difference between a constitutional monarchy like in Holland or in Britain, there is not much difference between  that and a republic.”

”Real’ constitutional monarchy

Wefaq and other opposition groups have called for a “real” constitutional  monarchy to be established in Bahrain.

But Mashaima said that he does not trust that a constitutional monarchy along those lines would be implemented even if it was promised.

“This is why we chose changing the regime to a republic.”

Meanwhile Wefaq said that it and six other opposition groups had held talks on Monday with the pro-government National Unity Assembly and agreed on the importance of working against sectarian tension.

National Unity Assembly leader Sheikh Abdul Latif al-Mahmud told reporters after the meeting that there was agreement with the opposition on the need for “strategic solutions to problems faced by Bahrain”.

He said constitutional reform was a priority.

Demonstrators continue to keep vigil in hundreds of tents in the capital Manama’s Pearl Roundabout, which has become the focal point of the protests.

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A Middle East without borders?

al-Jazeera: The modern geography of the Middle East was carved out by British and French colonialists whose sole interest was in sharing the spoils of war between themselves and in maintaining their supremacy over the region in the early part of the 20th century.

The contours of the region, with its immaculately straight lines (see maps of Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Sudan) are much the same today as when they were first drawn up, despite decades of cross-border encroachment and conflict.

Never has an imported concept been so jealously guarded by ruling families and political elites in the Middle East as that of the nation state, together with the holy grail of international relations theory, state sovereignty.

The artificialness of the borders in question is not in doubt. Take a look at any map of the Middle East prior to the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement between Britain and France (when the division of the region was finalised with no consideration for the thoughts of the people that lived in it) and you will be hard pressed to find many physical boundaries between, say, Syria to the north-east and Morocco to the west.

What you may find, however, are free-flowing train routes spanning the region. A relic of the old Hejaz Railway, which connected Damascus to Medina, still stands (dilapidated) in the centre of the Syrian capital. It once transported pilgrims to the Muslim holy city in modern-day Saudi Arabia without the need for cumbersome visas and frustrating bureaucrats. But that was obviously some time ago.

Trial and error

Over the course of recent history, Arab leaders have attempted to foster closer unity in the Arab world whether in the form of the 22-member Arab League – “to safeguard the independence and sovereignty [of Arab states]” – or the six-state Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) – as a political, economic and security union in response to the Islamic revolution in Iran.

However, the sanctity of the state itself, and its borders, has been absolute within these blocs.

Possibly the greatest experiment in cross-border union, one which admittedly lasted barely three years, began in 1958, when under a wave of Nasserism sweeping the region, Egypt and Syria (and for a very short period, Iraq) established the United Arab Republic (UAR).

Gamal Abdel-Nasser’s demagoguery and penchant for power, however, and the subsequent economic tumult felt in Syria, soon saw an end to that project in 1961.

Theoretically, Egypt and Syria became one, as part of the UAR. Under a single leadership (with devolved power), the UAR was supposed to foster a spirit of togetherness and spur other countries in the region to join up and expand the union.

That the project failed was in no way a reflection of the Egyptian and Syrian peoples’ desire to forge a single alliance. Together with the then Yemen Arab Republic, the formation of a United Arab States was also mooted.

That was the last we heard of a pan-Arab national project.

Arguably, the 1990s and the 2000s were the decades of cross-border post-nationalism, especially with the rise of Islamic movements as major political actors whose ideology was premised on Islamic ideals that transcended national borders.

Analyse closely the manifestos of some of these movements, however, and also consider their specific origins, and it soon becomes clear that their political ambitions were, and are, ingrained firmly in the states in which they emerged.

As such, the Islamic Salvation Front was a dominant actor in Algeria and Algeria alone, while the Muslim Brotherhood’s focus is on political reformation in Egypt. The Brotherhood’s offshoots are similarly specifically state-centric.

These movements may well have ideological underpinnings that aim to replicate the glory days of the early Caliphates or the Ottoman Empire, but realism has dictated that they focus their energies within specific national confines. This is unlikely to change anytime soon.

All for one

Given this recent history, then, is the idea of a borderless Middle East still viable? It may well be when you consider that the globalised nature of the world, in its present form, has thrown up possibilities in the region that would have been inconceivable barely a few years back.

More precisely, the political convulsions that the region is undergoing right now have revealed glaringly the extent to which the problems and, potentially, the solutions to the Arab world’s ills are remarkably similar. The political, economic and social suffocation that the people of Tunisia and Egypt have endured, before popular revolutions swept the countries’ dictators from power, were near identical. The political, economic and social ailments suffered in Libya, Algeria, Bahrain, Yemen and now Oman are of the same vein.

Obviously, the causes of political unrest across these states are much more nuanced and cannot be reduced to generalisations. However, the future, unsurprisingly, is with the youth, the very demographic that is taking the lead in battling corruption and autocracy and one that is communicating, encouraging and helping others across borders in the spirit and language of togetherness.

Sure, this does not by itself denote that borders are now irrelevant. What it does suggest, however, is that political and economic issues and opportunities cannot be dealt with simply within the confines of borders any longer. The pent-up frustrations of the Arab youth, the economic inequalities, the demands for better representation extend across the entire region. A single voice is emerging in search of a single value: Freedom.

A single political authority is certainly not about to emerge out of the current political turmoil. But such an authority is not necessary. An appropriate governance model for the Arab world to emulate would be that of the European Union (EU). The 27-nation political and economic union is borderless in the sense that its people can live, work and travel in member countries without much hindrance.

Sovereignty is still paramount in the EU but the federalisation of political and economic power is to the benefit of hundreds of millions of Europeans. Granted, the recent economic and financial crisis has called into question the viability of the EU, or more specifically, the single European currency, but the political will remains resolute in defence of the union.

We can probably find a plethora of reasons why a real political and economic union would not work in the Arab world. Take a look at the GCC, for example, a bloc of around 40 million people: After a decade of trying, it is still unable to form a currency union. How are we then to expect over 200 million people to agree on a federally-based political and economic union?

But, this would be to dismiss the thrust towards a common set of goals in the Arab world. Borders are increasingly irrelevant in this new equation. The means of mass communication, interdependency, pan-regional media, ease of access through improved infrastructure, the identification with a cause rather than a country, all suggest that the political awakening in the region may be conducive to a completely different set of political and economic realities.

The nation state as we know it, as it was imposed on the region by colonial powers, is ripe for change. The unleashing of people power has now opened up new possibilities for mapping the Arab world’s future. While protesters across the region have been waving their respective national flags, the cause for which they are fighting and risking their lives extends well beyond their immediate borders.

Mohammed Khan is a political analyst based in the UAE.

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Rafsanjani ousted as head of state body

Reuters: Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani lost his position as head of an important state clerical body on Tuesday after hardliners criticized him for being too close to the reformist opposition.

The defeat for one of the great survivors of Iranian politics since the 1979 Islamic revolution highlighted how opponents of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are being isolated and sidelined.

It follows reports by relatives of reformist opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi — denied by the government — that they have been placed in detention at a secret location to stop them orchestrating pro-democracy protests inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

Opposition websites have called on people to take to streets in fresh demonstrations on Tuesday, International Women’s Day, despite an official ban.

An ambush challenge by arch hard-liner Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani forced Rafsanjani to withdraw from running for re-election as chairman of the Assembly of Experts.

The 86-member clerical body has the authority to appoint and dismiss Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 71, but it has never exercised that power since the Assembly was established in 1983.

The vote will not have an immediate practical impact on Iran’s complex political structure but analysts said the hardline triumph at the Assembly would further homogenize the clerical establishment by removing any semblance of dissent.

Rafsanjani, who had chaired the body since 2007, said he had no intention of causing discord.

“I regard division at the Assembly as detrimental … I had said before that should he (Mahdavi-Kani) stand for the position, I would withdraw to prevent any rift,” Rafsanjani told the Assembly in a speech, the students news agency ISNA said.

Iranian media reported last week that more than 50 members of the Assembly supported the candidacy of Mahdavi-Kani, but the challenger played coy up to the last minute over whether he would run.

The defeat was a blow to Rafsanjani’s attempt to play a bridging role between dominant Islamic hardliners and the increasingly marginalized reformist opposition since Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election in 2009.

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The Battle of Misrata

al-Arabiya: On the military front, the revolutionaries beat back the fiercest attack so far by Muammar Gaddafi’s forces on the town of Misrata on Sunday, residents told Reuters, and a doctor said at least 18 people were killed. Government forces used tanks and artillery in what appeared to be their most concerted effort yet to retake the town, 200 km (125 miles) east of the capital Tripoli, but were pushed back by rebels fighting Gaddafi’s 41-year old rule. “Today Misrata witnessed the toughest battle since the beginning of the revolution. Horrible attacks,” one resident, who did not want to give his name, told Reuters by phone. “They came from three sides and managed to enter the town from the west and south but when they reached the center of Misrata the rebels pushed them back,” he said.

A spokesman for the opposition forces in Benghazi in the east told reporters Gaddafi’s troops had been beaten back in Misrata and in Zawiyah, a town to the west of the capital. Another Misrata resident said Gaddafi’s forces had retreated to a military airbase 7 km from the town. Misrata, with a population of about 300,000 is the largest population center controlled by Gaddafi opponents outside the opposition-held east of the country. If opposition soldiers are able to continue their fitful advance westwards, Misrata could be a stepping stone to reaching the capital, Gaddafi’s principal stronghold.

“The revolutionaries captured 20 soldiers and seized a tank. The town is now fully in the control of the youths,” the second resident said. A doctor at Misrata’s main hospital said at least 18 people, including a baby girl, had been killed in the attack. “Today the attack was fierce, I have not seen anything like that in my whole life,” he said. “We have 18 martyrs but the figure is not final. We also have many people wounded, I can not even count them,” he said.

Residents said that by early evening, the situation was calm but opposition fighters were combing the town, looking for any remaining pro-Gaddafi forces. “You can feel the tension in the city, revolutionaries are searching the streets, the squares and the alleys to see if there are any hidden mercenaries,” said one man who was coming back form the funeral of a neighbor killed in the fighting. “We just buried him now, he is a martyr and will go to heaven, but Gaddafi and his people will not even smell heaven,” he said, crying.

Other locals in Misrata, which has been under rebel control for over a week, earlier said the government attack was led by units of a militia led by Khamis, a son of the Libyan leader. “They are destroying everything they find. They are using artillery and tanks,” said a man who gave his name as Mohamed. Until now there have only been skirmishes on the outskirts of the city, with residents reporting occasional outbreaks of fighting around the airport, and at an air base near the city.

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Two sides of Libya’s conflict

See the video here.  The most important thing to take away from it is that fighting is moving closer to Tripoli.

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Saudi Arabia bans protest rallies

Is anyone surprised? The Saudi regime is the most totalitarian of them all, and that’s saying a lot since there’s a very high standard! al-Jazeera: Saudi Arabia has banned all protests and marches following recent anti-government protests in the kingdom’s east, reports say. State television on Saturday quoted the interior ministry as saying that security forces would use all measures to prevent any attempt to disrupt public order. The ban on public demonstrations comes amid media reports of a huge mobilisation of Saudi troops in Shia-dominated provinces in order to quell any possible uprising.

According to The Independent, a British newspaper, 10,000 security personnel are being sent to the region by road, clogging highways into Dammam and other cities.

A restive Shia population has staged a series of protests in the kingdom’s east in the past weeks. Their grievances range from lack of equal economic and employment opportunities to detentions without trial. On Saturday, small protests were held in the cities of Hofuf and Qatif. The government of Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy without an elected parliament that usually does not tolerate public dissent, denies any discrimination against the Shia community. The authorities, however, are increasingly on edge following the anti-governmnent protests sweeping across the Arab world. Last week, King Abdullah returned to Riyadh after a three-month medical absence and unveiled $37bn in benefits for citizens in an apparent bid to insulate the kingdom from protests.

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Facebook calls for demonstrations in Morocco on March 20

al-Arabiya: Young activists campaigning for greater democracy in Morocco are using the social network Facebook to call for new demonstrations “for dignity and large scale political reforms” on March 20.

“We have chosen this date to demonstrate peacefully, for dignity and to demand deep political reforms,” Oussama El Khlifi, one of those behind the “February 20 movement”, told AFP.

“This rendezvous will be preceded by a sit-in on March 6 in Rabat.”

Demonstrations took place in several Moroccan cities on February 20 in answer to a call by young people via Facebook to demand “urgent” political reforms and limits to the king’s powers.

“Several associations, political parties and trade unions are backing our movement, which is peaceful and in particular is claiming the promulgation of a new constitution,” Oussama El Khlifi said.

The February 20 movement claims on its Facebook page to have 30,000 followers and gained recent backing from one of the major parties in the government coalition, the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP).

After the February 20 demonstrations, the first in Morocco since the tide of unrest swept through the Arab world, the authorities said they had “got the message.

The following day King Mohammed VI said he wanted to “strengthen (the Moroccan model) by new reforms.”

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Diplomat: I can no longer represent Israel

YNet News: A veteran diplomat says he has resigned from his post because he had a hard time defending the policies of Israel’s current government, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Wednesday. Ilan Baruch says he quit because “Israel’s foreign policy is wrong,” pointing to the Palestinian issue. Should this trend continue, he warned, Israel will turn into a pariah state and face growing de-legitimization. Baruch told Israel TV Wednesday that Israel’s standing was in danger because of its policies, which he said were “difficult to explain.” “I can no longer honestly represent this government,” he said earlier. “As (Foreign Minister) Lieberman was elected by a large public in a legitimate manner, I cannot question him – but I don’t have to serve him, and therefore I’m quitting.” “Identifying the objection expressed by global public opinion to the occupation policy as anti-Semitic is simplistic, provincial and artificial,” he wrote. “Experience shows that this global trend won’t change until we normalize our relations with the Palestinians.”

Baruch sent a personal letter to all Foreign Ministry employees Tuesday to explain the motives for his decision. “Identifying the objection expressed by global public opinion to the occupation policy as anti-Semitic is simplistic, provincial and artificial,” he wrote. “Experience shows that this global trend won’t change until we normalize our relations with the Palestinians.”

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Summary of Events on Friday from Libya to Wisconsin

See the video here.

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Huntington’s Clash Revisited

Excerpt: It now appears that people in these nations, like people in all nations, have multiple authentic selves. In some circumstances, one set of identities manifests itself, but when those circumstances change, other equally authentic identities and desires get activated. For most of the past few decades, people in Arab nations were living under regimes that rule by fear. In these circumstances, most people shared the conspiracy mongering and the political passivity that these regimes encouraged. But when the fear lessened, and the opportunity for change arose, different aspirations were energized. Over the past weeks, we’ve seen Arab people ferociously attached to their national identities. We’ve seen them willing to risk their lives for pluralism, openness and democracy. I’d say Huntington was also wrong in the way he defined culture. In some ways, each of us is like every person on earth; in some ways, each of us is like the members of our culture and group; and, in some ways, each of us is unique. Huntington minimized the power of universal political values and exaggerated the influence of distinct cultural values. It’s easy to see why he did this. He was arguing against global elites who sometimes refuse to acknowledge the power of culture at all.

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Al Jazeera English Blacked Out Across Most of U.S.

A little dated but still very relevant – Huffington Post: Other than in a handful of pockets across the U.S. – including Ohio, Vermont and Washington, D.C. – cable carriers do not give viewers the choice of watching Al Jazeera. That corporate censorship comes as American diplomats harshly criticize the Egyptian government for blocking Internet communication inside the country and as Egypt attempts to block Al Jazeera from broadcasting. Media critics have begun to push for Al Jazeera’s inclusion. “It is downright un-American to still refuse to carry it,” wrote Jeff Jarvis on Sunday. “Vital, world-changing news is occurring in the Middle East and no one-not the xenophobic or celebrity-obsessed or cut-to-the-bone American media-can bring the perspective, insight, and on-the-scene reporting Al Jazeera English can.”

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U.S. Backs Bahrain Royalty, Varying Playbook on Revolt

Wall Street Journal: The U.S. is stepping up its support for Bahrain’s beleaguered ruling family, throwing a lifeline to a key ally and signaling Washington’s willingness to vary its approach depending on its strategic interests and the willingness of autocratic leaders to respond to popular protests. After backing opposition calls for the removal of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Col. Moammar Gadhafi in Libya, President Barack Obama has tentatively embraced efforts by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain to ease tensions and advance reform, despite an initial wave of violence against protesters.

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Music Video from the Egyptian Revolution

I’ve decided, my favorite image of the Egyptian Revolution is where the protesters gathered to pray in peaceful protest on the bridge while security forces used water canons against them. I’ve seen it in a dozen different videos and it’s including in this one as well albeit briefly.

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Qaddafi Music Video

Sorry, but I had to post this viral music video, it’s too good. Here’s the article about the story behind it.

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