Informed Comment: “Since the al-Assad regime has won the civil war, it does not feel it needs to make a grand political compromise with the rebels, who only have three significant pockets of resistance left: Idlib Province in the north, the East Ghouta neighborhood in the vicinity of Damascus, and Deraa south of the capital. All together, these three account for about 2 million people. The YPG Kurds of the north and northeast constitute another 2 million, but they are not rebels against the regime per se and probably would be willing to rejoin Syria if it were reformulated as a federal state with substantial states’ rights. They also now rule over about a million Arab Syrians in Raqqa. So the remnants of the rebels rule about 11 percent of the some 18 million Syrians still inside the country. The YPG Kurds have about 16 percent of the population. That is 27%. Let’s say there are rebel pockets amounting to another 3%, giving the regime 70% of the population. Tillerson says Damascus only rules half the territory, but that statistic is irrelevant since the eastern desert is thinly populated It is like the US government losing control of Wyoming, which is a big place but, no offense, few people live there. And remember that the 11% that is Kurds, while they are not under government control, have been willing to cooperate with the Syrian Arab Army against the Arab fundamentalists and would likely do a deal with Damascus if the US left.”
“Trump Admin Commits to Forever War in Syria against Iran”
“How years of increasing labor unrest signaled Iran’s latest protest wave”
Washington Post: “Beginning on Dec. 28, a wave of protests surged across Iran, with at least 75 cities reportedly experiencing one or more demonstrations in the first week. Soon after they began, commentators rushed to attribute the protests to various grievances, from Ponzi-like banking scheme collapses and budget corruption allegations to soaring prices of eggs and gasoline. However, our research suggests that rather than grievances alone, an underappreciated precursor for the protests was the buildup of demonstrations and rallies by teachers, workers, trade unions and civil society associations.”
Fox News as the Rag of the MEK
Fox News: “‘They should impose major sanctions on the regime,’ one protester demanded. Another added there ‘should be sanctions for human rights violations.’ The protesters are members of the long banned opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI, also known as the MEK). The group’s leader, Maryam Rajavi, has been directly blamed by the Iranian government for fomenting the unrest. Social media videos show supporters unveiling large banners with Rajavi’s photo over highway overpasses, and continuing their opposition.”
“The Moral Economy of the Iranian Protests”
Jacobin: “The Iranian demonstrators share the familiar anxieties produced by global capitalism’s rampant inequalities and environmental destruction. For now the protests seem to be petering out under state repression and the protesters’ inability to broaden their support. The government acknowledges that 21 have been killed and almost 4,000 have been arrested in a national sweep. The government may try to alleviate tensions by rewriting the budget and reinstating the subsidies and cash payments that it had planned to slash. A new round of highly publicized anti-corruption cases may also be a means for the regime to argue that it is taking action and responding to social demands. But the social realities of those living on the jagged edges of Iranian society will persist. What makes the demonstrations against malfeasance and the calls for political change and social justice powerful is the fact that the protesters are accusing Iran’s rulers of violating the revolution’s commitment to a moral economy.”
“How Iran’s Bread Riots turned anti-Systemic & what it means for the Future”
Informed Comment: “A few issues stood out in the January 2018 protests. These will have far-reaching implications in the future. First and foremost, the protests turned very quickly into anti-systemic riots. Reports of the unrest have noted that demonstrators chanted slogans against the regime (Down with the Dictator) and tore down pictures of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The wide spread of anti-regime sentiments was remarkable. While the 2009 Green Movement was effectively an extension of the reformist faction aimed at countering the excesses of the conservatives, the January 2018 protests did not differentiate between the reformists and conservatives and rejected the whole system of clerical rule. This suggests a qualitative shift and a significant challenge to the future of the regime. This challenge will remain real as long as the ruling regime fails to deliver on the much needed economic recovery.”
“A London Television Station Has Convinced Iran the Shah Was Great”
Foreign Policy: “Of course, none of this would have mattered if the Islamic Republic hadn’t blocked any alternative for political opposition within the country. With most of Iran’s critical voices and political leaders under arrest or in exile, and a long-running deadlock between conservatives and reformist political elites, young Iranians are hungry for a political alternative. The only alternative at hand happens to be a news and entertainment industry that pines for Pahlavi Iran.”
“Why is Iran arresting its protesting youths?”
WaPo: “That these emerging Iranians are willing to take direct action against their government doesn’t mean that they want to burn it all down. As I’ve noted elsewhere, citizens take to the streets to preserve the system, to make it work for them and not against them. Protests have a long and proud pedigree in Iran, and should, for now, be seen as politics by other means, a way to avoid the change that comes by any means necessary.”
“How ISIS Got Weapons From the U.S. and Used Them to Take Iraq and Syria”
Newsweek: “As much as 90 percent of ISIS’s arms and ammunition were found to have originated in Russia, China and Eastern European states. The jihadis were able to obtain much of this arsenal as a result of former President Barack Obama’s support for rebels in Syria, U.K.-based Conflict Armament Research reported after analyzing 40,000 items recovered by its investigators along ISIS front lines between July 2014 and November 2017. By purchasing ‘large numbers’ of European arms and ammunition and then diverting them to nonstate actors in Syria without notifying the sellers, the U.S. reportedly ‘violated the terms of sale and export agreed between weapon exporters…and recipients.'”
“Iran After Protests: Change Does Come”
Washington Post: “As in the past, the current crackdowns may appear to suppress demands for change and strengthen the status quo. But evolution is essential for survival, and the system will evolve. Since the protesters come from the segments of the population that hardliners have long taken for granted, these forces may find themselves on the defensive and thus forced to heed the call of reining in the shadow state. If foreign investment flows in with greater requirements of transparency, the stranglehold of corruption on the economy could also be loosened, allowing more independent businesses to flourish again.”
“Iran tried to block the internet to disrupt protests. It wound up disrupting daily life”
LA Times: “As authorities have tried to govern the internet, Iranians have over the years become adept at circumventing online censorship. But as more Iranians use the internet — and the internet plays a bigger role in an increasingly web-connected society — crackdowns have broader effects. For many, internet restrictions in recent weeks disrupted daily life more than the protests did.”
“Protesters Outside Tehran’s Evin Prison Demand Release Of Prisoners”
The Iranian: “Scores of dervishes and other demonstrators were protesting outside Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, while anti-riot forces were lined up surrounding them, since Tuesday afternoon until the time of this publication, after midnight Tehran time.”
“Iranians Can Do Without Bill Kristol’s Solidarity”
Jacobin: “Indeed, at least as early as May 2003 — when fresh plumes of smoke were still rising over Baghdad — Kristol used a Hamas-connected suicide bombing in Jerusalem and unconfirmed media reports that one of the men behind an attack on a Saudi compound was hiding in Iran to call for military intervention into the country. Besides maintaining this drumbeat of war through subsequent years, Kristol’s political group, the Emergency Committee for Israel (ECI), ran ads throughout 2012 calling for war with Iran.”
“The top 10 ways to discredit any uprising in Iran”
By Prof. Hamid Dabashi (#2 is especially funny): “2. Place Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu behind a desk with his back to a gaudy cliche library and tape him sending a message of support and solidarity to the Iranian people and their magnificent culture and love for the Zionist brand of freedom and justice. Make sure the Israeli Orientalists teach him how to drop a few Persian words here and there, and watch Iranian demonstrators gag and throw up as they run towards the nearest mosque to join the Revolutionary Guard to defend their homeland against the Saudi-Zionist alliance and forget about any protest.”
“Why Iran Is Protesting”
New York Times: “Unlike during the first decades of the post-revolutionary Iran, the rich now heedlessly flaunt their wealth. Until the mid-2000s, the gentlemen’s agreement among the embezzlers held that they keep a modest appearance at home and launder their money in Dubai and Toronto. In the most famous case, Mahmoud Reza Khavari, the former managing director of Bank Melli, made off with hundreds of millions of dollars and became a real estate mogul in Toronto. That generation cared about appearances and never dropped the veneer of fealty to the ideals of the 1979 revolution. Their millennial offspring, on the other hand, hardly care. Wealthy young Iranians act like a new aristocratic class unaware of the sources of their wealth. They brazenly drive Porsches and Maseratis through the streets of Tehran before the eyes of the poor and post about their wealth on Instagram. The photos travel across apps and social media and enrage the hardworking people in other cities. Iranians see pictures of the family members of the authorities drinking and hanging out on beaches around the world, while their daughters are arrested over a fallen head scarf and their sons are jailed for buying alcohol. The double standard has cultivated an enormous public humiliation.”
Netanyahu’s Double Standard
What if his empty statement of solidarity with Iranian protesters applied to Israelis and Palestinians? See the Haaretz video here.