Revolution Day should be a reminder to everyone…

that Iran is split and that division is fateful. If you look at US media and the commentary amongst the diaspora community, the image that is presented to us is that the government in Iran is an island surrounded by the a sea of opposition. I wrote this during the first week after the elections in June and it warrants mentioning again given the huge show of support the regime enjoyed today: “His [Khamenei’s] supporters are willing both to die and kill to protect him and the system, which is the main difference between now and 1979 -  the Shah had little support and when push came to shove, his few supporters packed their bags and fled the country. These people loyal to Khamenei think that they have the biggest claim to Iran since it was hundreds of thousands from within their ranks that died defending Iran during the Iran-Iraq War and will not walk way so easily simply because giving up is, as they see it, tantamount to betraying the holy sacrifice of all those martyrs of the revolution and war.”

It must be said yet again, the biggest difference between ’79 and now is that large segments of society support the regime and that difference is a major one in contemplating the possibilities of revolution in Iran – an idea that many seem to believe is a realistic possibility. Other decisive differences abound but it warrants a longer conversation. Nor is Iran on the “brink of civil war” despite what Reza Aslan says.  The opposition is not armed, militant, or able to wage a civil war. In the last stages of the revolution in 1979, it can be argued that Iran was engulfed in a civil war and that’s because guerilla groups, namely the Mujahideen-e Khalq & the Fadayan-e Khalq, had long existed in Iran and had been fighting a low intensity war with regime since 1971 and that Iranian soldiers defected in the last days of the movement, allowing guerilla groups to raid the barracks and distribute arms to factions that had training and experience with arms. No such faction, experience, or availability of weaponry exists in Iran today, so talks of civil war are increasingly sensationalist.