Things are indeed moving fast in Iran and it’s impotant to stay updated. Some important developments: 1. The other conservative candidate, Rezai, has also lodged a complaint similar to Mousavi’s calling the election a fraud. 2. The rally that was banned by the regime today but it went ahead in full effect with the BBC and CNN saying that 100,000 gathered, which is staggering, but it was not “the biggest demonstration in the Islamic republic’s 30-year history.” I’d say that the MKO organized bigger ones in the spring of 1981 with an estimated 500,000 in Tehran alone (See Ervand Abrahamian’s book, The Iranian Mojahideen). And in 1987, over 1 million protested the massacre of Iranian pilgrims in Saudi Arabia (See Time Magazine’s 1987 “Iran vs The World” cover story). Nevertheless, the BBC is right to call this demonstration a “political earthquake.” See the footage from the event here. Make no mistake about it, although the protests were triggered because of the election results, they have morphed into anti-regime protests attacking the entire system. The Islamic regime is in an impossible situation to say the least, but one thing is certain, this is not like eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War and nor is it like the demonstrations in Ukraine a few years ago. The regime in Iran is very well entrenched and they are most likely preparing a massive crackdown. So far, today one person died in the demonstration, but I believe that is just a taste of what is to come. First, since the protests are not just about the election results, the regime knows that they will continue even if it backtracks and orders a revote. In fact, if he does cancel the election results, it may encourage and even give momentum to the demonstrations to press on. So what that means is that the regime knows that it’s only option is either to watch the protests mushroom or order a crackdown. This situation is more analoguous to the China of 1989 where the regime there ordered the ideolically hardline People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to clear out Tienanmen Square after weeks of student-led demonstrations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) or the Pasdaran are Iran’s PLA and once given the order, they will not show any leniency. So in my opinion, the issue isn’t if, but when will it happen and when it does, do those students have the stomach to carry on after? In 1979, they braved the massacres. We’ll see, stay tuned.
-
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.”
Meta
I agree with you, the record shows this regime is more than willing to use violence and force when it sees a threat to its domestic hegemony. And this is likely the biggest threat seen since the early days of the revolution. This is incredible to watch-and disturbing to think about the consequences. I think this will determine for us once and for all who is more passionate, the opposition and disgruntled Iranian masses, or the regimes supporters. Fascinating.
im sure it was more than 100,000 (thats a conservative estimate)–maybe closer to 500,000. also important to note, the protests are not only in tehran, but throughout the country. and this turnout was despite rumors that protesters would be fired upon. ready to give this generation some credit yet, pouya?
The reason why I’m sad today is for that very fact. Out of my friends ( i mean those who grew up in the U.S. and not the recent immigrant population) I have visited Iran probably the most number of times (9). I have a really good idea of what that government is capable of, most importantly i know what the extremest population are like. I cant help but feel powerless here, knowing all my cousins and family are over there and anything can happen. What you predict is grim and I pray to God that such a thing does not come, but I also know that the possibility of it happening is more real than I want to acknowledge.
Nazamin who called these protesters partying going-goers! IRAN MUST BE ONE BIG PARTY COUNT W/ HALF A MILLION PARTY GOERS!
Nothing will come out of it. Sooner or later they government is going to come out hard and a lot of students are going to start disappearing.
I’m just suprised Pouya decided to talk about it. Either way, don’t get your hopes up, cuz this will mean massive crackdown and of course allegation of Jewish interference and Israel’s interference will come out and about couple of thousand israeli spies will be arrested, hanged, and killed to scare of the masses, and nothing will get solved.
Arash is prediciting “thousands” hanged and killed. It will be interesting to compare that to what actually happens.
I”m not predicting that, i’m saying a lot of people will get killed and nothing will come out of it. And close to thousand will be jailed or beaten if that hasn’t happened already. 🙂 seriously, you are obssessed and you are a freak dude!
“Iâ€m not predicting that, i’m saying a lot of people will get killed and nothing will come out of it.”
You are not predicting it, you are just saying that that is what is going to happen? Do you know what the meaning of “prediction” is?!
And before it was “thousands”, now its “close to thousand”. by which you meant to say, “close to A thousand”.
Please don’t write bullshit. I did not say that these are $500,000 party goers. I read Amir Ali’s comment about crack downs on having fun (something to this effect).
Arash will see water fountain as a tsunami. Speaking of clowns, have you seen the usual suspects Fox has been rolling out to “discuss” these protesters? At least bring someone who actually represents them. Are they a bunch of live stock who need Pahlavi and PMOI interpreters.
Solmatic, I hope I didn’t come across as being above this generation. When I was giving my opinion on this generation of Iranians, I included myself in that generalization, but yes, I still think that we will see if our generation has the stones once a full-scale crackdown has been ordered bc that’s when all is tested.
They had alireza jafarzadeh on fox to analyze the iranian situation and when asked what the US should do about the crisis, he managed to creep in, “remove the restrictions on the iranian opposition”. hah!
Jesus. They should tell that moron Jafarzadeh that the last time there was a revolutionary spirit in Iran and men in exile showed up, they basically shat on everything the protesters stood for.
Nazanin, you said the protesters after the election were bunch of party-goers! Now I am asking you this: WHAT YOU ARE WITNESSING IN IRAN NOW THAT DOES THE CROWD NOW PROTESTING IN STREETS OF IRAN ARE BUNCH OF PARTY GOERS?
:), dude..just move on and let go man, you are seriously a stalker. You keep putting words in my mouth, EVERYBODY IS ENTITLED TO THEIR OPINION, AND MY OPINION IS A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE JAILED AND DIE AND NOTHING WILL COME OUT, MAYBE MAYBE A RELECTION, NOW STOP INFRINGING AND ACTING LIKE A LITTLE BOY AND MOVE ON.
Pouya,
I think it is absolutely essential that it be announced that this election was rigged. There is no question about it. We cannot flirt with the idea that this election might have been won by Ahmadinejad due to his support in certain circles. . . .no. This has been a coup d’etat plain and simple.
You seem to dodging around this by just commenting on the fact that people are in the streets and making rather pointless comparisons with the Iranians who poured out into the streets in 1979 without explaining exactly why they are in the street. They are facing a severe threat if they sit back and allow the Revolutionary Gaurds and the conservative factions take complete control of the government.
IRAN democracy was a joke, has been a joke, will be a joke. Plaint and simple! Nazanin/Nahid are busting themselves trying to portray Iran as a democracy. Judicial due process almost does not exist in Iran. The balance on government is held by Guardian Counsil that is popet by the Rahbar (who by the way is a Taryaki/criminal/and a drug addict).
When you are dealing with a crowd who claim themselves to be government of Allah, using deadly force will be justified to maintain the religion and believe me, those Joojeh basiji will not hesistate for a second to open fire.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1184614595?bctid=26415347001
stuning video from people that Nazanin/nahid hold so dear to heart.
Amir Ali, get a grip on yourself please. If you’re fighting the mullahs, I suggest you stop wasting your energy railing against me. I am anti-Mousavi and that’s the end of it.
I love Nazanin’s logic, I’m anti-Mousavi, therefore i’ll vote for someone who has nearly brought Iran on brink of war!! yeah! at least he is honest in his racisim, stupidity, and of course violent behaivor.
Nazanin, honestly do you hear yourself?
Amir ali is wasting his energy in this matter, because he is dealing with Nahid (who he really doesn’t know that well) and of course he is too hopeful that these acts will have any results.
Arash thank you for coming out against those who shoot and kill protesters. You must be a strong supporter of the Palestinians.
Arash, your English is so horribly awkward. You learned “copyright infringement” in law school and now awkwardly try to apply the same word.
Also, “popet”, is spelled puppet. “Plaint” is spelled “plain”. “Counsil” is spelled “council”.
And look at this sentence:
“The balance on government is held by Guardian Counsil that is popet by the Rahbar (who by the way is a Taryaki/criminal/and a drug addict).”
Ugh.
Note to self: Arash is frequently embarassed by his own words, thats why when I quote his exact words, he says Im “putting words” in his mouth. I dont blame you. If i was you id wanna take back most of the things Ive said in the past.
🙂 you are sick! you really really are sick and obssessed. It is amazing. Get a life!
Im not dodging anything at all. Many believe it was fraud, some believe it was accurate. I don’t care at all, especially since I can’t prove it. I’m not simply going to say it’s false bc that’s what one segment of the population are saying and I’m not going to say it’s true bc some others say it was accurate. I am ready to say that it’s very possible that fraud took place and that you can’t put anything past this regime. But none of that matters. What matters is that those protesting believe that the elections were staged and that’s what counts. And drawing parallels to the past is not pointless at all. Recent history is very very relevant bc it helps understand what’s happening now and gives us indications as to what is possible and what may come about. I have more updates for the blog so stay posted.
As for Arash the Occupation Solder, stop monopolizing the debate. You’re not going to validate what you’re saying but posting over and over again. Try one clean and well-written post (I know it’s hard for you but just try).
Arash. So it has been you all along.
Let me ask you this: what difference does this election make for you? Why do you even care? You don’t live in Iran. What really upsets you about the possibility of another Ahmadinejad presidency. Why would an Mousavi presidency make any difference? 4 years went by, we all had the fear put in us, Ahmadinejad was compared to apes (I admit I’m guilty of that one) and oddly, no one was wiped off the map (except some Gazans).
If it’s because you think it’s in Israel’s interest to start this stuff vis a vis Mousavi, and the MKO mysteriously waking up with folders full of nuclear documents on the bedside before that, then you are actually hoping for Iran to go on the brink of war – civil war, even. Would you fight?
All this tough talk is worthless.
Nazanin: who has been me all along?
what difference does it make for me? I don’t know if mentioned before or not, I just don’t see anything changing. As oddly as it sounds, I do agree with pouya that there is a huge possibility of more violence coming from the Regime. This will probably pass and no change in Iranian policies. It is middle east we’re talking about where supression of political right is like a given.
With regard to ahmadinejad and Mousavi: I’LL TAKE ANY MODERATE OVER AHMADINEJAD. Ahmadinejad is the one that has brought Iran closer to civil war not israel. Don’t even try to blame Israel or come up w/ any stupid consipracy theory. Frankly I think all this news only weakens Israel’s case against Iran, and trust me, AHMADINEJAD WOULD HAVE BEEN A LOT BETTER FOR ISRAEL THAN MOUSAVI. Iran would continue its nuclear ambition whether it is under Mousavi or Ahmadinejad, however under Ahmadinejad who has put forth the true face of Iranian rulling party, it would have been a lot easier for israel to convince the world to take action against Iran. Under Mousavi, it would have been a lot harder for Israel to convince obama administeration to take any action against Iran because dialogue would have been a lot easier.
I would vote for Mousavi because i thikn at least under him, there is a chance for having hope for less restrictive Iran, for more personal freedom, for better picture of Iranian, instead of having Ahmadinejad on the TV on daily basis for his stupidity and outragous and anti-semitic comments.
With regard to Gaza, how is that related to the dicussion here? So are you attempting to divert the attention from internal politics to Israeli/Palestinian issue to justify your candidate? (AGAIN ANOTHER GIVEN RULE IN MIDDLE EAST POLITICS: BLAME ISRAEL)
I cant wait till i hear some goverment sources in Iran saying that Mussad is behind the protesters.
Pouya,
just curious, is the current regime cognizant of its perception world wide and thus willing to temper its actions in response to the protest or is it more likely to take the (fuck it ill do whatever i want / North Korea approach) and initiate a crackdown like the one we saw in China 1989?
It seems to me that if the winner was predetermined anyways, why even go through the dog and pony show in the first place?
You are trying to tell me that it doesn’t matter whether the elections were rigged or not?
What’s important is whether these people on the streets are as revolutionary as those of ’79?
You are analyzying an aspect of this movement that no one else would probably care about.
Why have the elections been rigged? What’s going on with the power struggle within the regime? How far is the rahbar and the revolutionary gaurds willing to go to consolidate their power in the aftermath of this coup?
These are the relevant questions everyone else is discussing.
The only reason I bring this up is because you have said, once again, that “it doesn’t matter” whether these elections were rigged. Pouya, this is not something some people beleive and others don’t so we can just leave it at that and then turn our attention to the makeup of the crowds. The complete demise of what little resemblence of democracy existed in the Islamic Republic is what is at stake here and this is the core issue so no, we cannot just accept that different segments of society believe different things about the rigging of the elections.
You are trying to overlook an objective fact that can’t be disputed with and must be stated as a solid basis before you can analyze anything else about these demonstrations.
“You are analyzying an aspect of this movement that no one else would probably care about. Why have the elections been rigged? What’s going on with the power struggle within the regime?”
Did you even read my other post? It was mainly devoted to the internal power struggle.
As to the issue of the election… I am pretty sure it was a fraud, but like almost everyone else in the news media, Ill say that although it was likely, “we don’t have any hard evidence.”
But if you’re going to reiterate your points using different words, so will I. Again, it no longer really matters whether it was a fraud or not bc that’s not even the main issue anymore. Indeed, I strongly believe that if the authorities order a re-vote, the protests will continue.
Pouya, there is no direct evidence, however just like many many cases presented to anybody, we could use circumstantial evidence. These evidence could be as reliable as hard evidence in situations where you have scientific methods to come to that conclusion. One example is that a lot of pols b4 the election argued that it is too close to call the election or the candidate are neck to neck. Then all the exit pols pointed out to the fact Mousavi was leading and another suspecting issue was it only took them couple of hours to declare the winner, when the race has been so close and margin was over 60%. These are all circumstantial evidence. THIS WAS NOTHING BUT A SELECTION INSTEAD OF AN ELECTION.
BBC: “Thousands of supporters of President Ahmadinejad staged their own rally in Vali Asr Square in central Tehran – some bussed in from the provinces, correspondents say”
IF YOU HAVE SUPPORT AND IF YOU ARE AN ELECTED OFFICIAL, WHY WOULD YOU NEED TO BUS IN PEOPLE FROM DIFFERENT PROVINCES?
Funny how the “protesters” (read: hoodlums, thugs. I mean c’mon they were wearing masks and throw rocks, home-made molitovs and set fire to anything standing in their way.. pure anarchism) moved towards South Tehran a few days ago, no doubt to aggrevate the Ahmadinejad supporters gathering peacefully. Or maybe they just felt like “slumming it” for a while and see what its like for the other side that can’t afford to bum around and engage in kos-khol bazy 24/7.
Pingback: خواسته مردم در Ù‡Ùت ماده « هسته‌هاي مقاومت ملي