My life is in a bit of a transition period so I haven’t been following the Iranian elections as much as would like but today I read something very interesting. I read that the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. (IRGC) accused Mousavi of using the elections and his campaign to organize a velvet revolution. There’s no real way of knowing and this may or may not be his intention (probably not) but I saw footage of the student campaigners today in Tehran and it very much looked like a demonstration reminiscent of movements that ended communist rule in Eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War. This probably isn’t Mousavi’s objective but is it possible that this campaign is snowballing into something else? Anyway, if any of you are elligible to vote as Iranians living in the US, you can find a local voting center here. The elections are this Friday and I hope to be able to vote. I welcome any ideas you may have about the elections.
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.”
Meta
June 11, 2009
Iran’s elections — my sober views
People have been asking me why I don’t write more about the presidential elections in Iran. The answer is that I prefer to keep my mouth shut about things that I don’t know about. And the fact is that no one can predict the outcome nor its effects such as relations with the USA. Remember, not one of the many self-important talking heads that are being widely quoted in the Western press foresaw the election of Ahmadinejad in the first place (nor the election of Khatami before him…nor the 1979 Islamic Revolution!)
Nor am I sure that the election will make a real difference in foreign affairs, especially around the nuclear issue. Remember, despite the Western media’s attempt scaremonger about Iran’s nuclear program by connecting the program to the “crazy” Ahmadinejad (something that Ahmadinejad himself encouraged too) the fact is that Iran’s nuclear program is not controlled by Iran’s presidents. It didn’t begin with Ahmadinejad, and it won’t end when he leaves office. The program started under the previous regime, under the Shah, and will continue even if there is another revolution in Iran, because it is driven by strategic and economic factors that are independent of the identity of individual politicians.
Note also that most of what passes as analysis of the election is really wishful thinking of the pundits themselves. Mousavi has become a media darling in the West supposedly because he is a “reformist” and represents a constituency who is relatively secular, wealthy and upper-class … but I can’t help remember that US analysts were not able to forsee the 1979 Islamic Revolution specifically because they too were limited in interacting with the Westernized elites in Iran, and never bothered to go to “the street” to see what was really going on. So, with this emphasis on Mousavi, are we making the same mistake again?
Finally, some have suggested that all the talk about corruption has brought the very legitimacy of the IRI itself into question. They find it ironic that Ahmadinejad, a creature of the Islamic regime, would criticize the same regime. Well, its not ironic — it is normal. Rather than delegitimizing the revolution, the fact that someone like Ahmadinejad can raise these issues can also be viewed as a indicator of the legitimacy of the regime. How you interpret it really depends on your own preconceptions. Naturally, people who have been waiting for the fall of the IRI view every event there through a particular lens and rush to conclude from it that the IRI has been delegitimized and will fall. But that’s wishful thinking more than objective analysis.
http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2009/06/irans-elections-my-sober-views.html
The current atmosphere in Iran is exhilarating. I was in Iran when Khatami was elected; his support among the masses was tremendous, perhaps even more than Moussavi’s support, but we never had the street gatherings and the outpour of emotions and demonstrations that we are witnessing today. The “Human Green Chain” that stretched from Northern Tehran to Southern Tehran is completely inexplicable. There has never been anything similar to it in Iran’s history, even during the 1979 Revolution.
Moreover, the televised debates where candidates are able to openly criticize each other, and even call Ahmadinejad a “liar” have given the population a taste for true democracy. Iranians are not accustomed to having their government criticized on national TV.
Obviously, with Moussavi’s elections, nothing substantial will change. There may be some improvement in the internal economy of the country and perhaps we will regain some respect, that we lost during Ahmadinejad’s tenure, within the international community.
However, many people who had previously boycotted the elections are starting to believe that there is a difference between “bad” and “worse” and by boycotting the elections they are indirectly voting for Ahmadinejad. One Iranian noted “do not vote because you want change, vote because you do not want to lose the possibility of change in Iran’s future.â€
I keep wondering that if Moussavi is not elected, what would happen to his passionate supporters? Will there be another “18 Tir” or perhaps something more monumental?!
http://rajanews.com/detail.asp?id=30937
http://www.alalam.ir/farsi/site/heykal/heykal.htm
I’m baaaaaaaaaack! I know you missed me, especially nahid and smiley face.
Yeah seriously.. mass starvation in Gaza?.. where’s your evidence ipouya?? That’s shoddy blog writing, yo.
And with regard to the Iranian election, at least Mousavi denounced Holocaust denial (more than once, from what I’ve read) while that monkey Ahmadinejad questions history. It’s quite refreshing to see young people and women out in the streets of Iran, not afraid to speak out.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Here’s hoping Mousavi wins in Iran
The biggest difference between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad is that Mousavi offers the US a face-saving way to back down, which the US is likely eager to take.
Ahmadinejad would have done well to be more polished. On the other hand, his attacks on Rafsanjani and corruption in the old guard clerics demonstrated both desperation and courageousness. He may even benefit from saying what everyone in the country knows but no viable candidate could say. He’s probably more of a reformer than Mousavi, but that’s for Iran’s voters to decide.
Ahmadinejad losing gives the US all the pretext it needs to open to Iran despite the objections of Israel and Israel’s supporters.
http://mideastreality.blogspot.com/
I agree with the fat one and Jewish Zionist. There is not evidence of mass starvation per se, just mass chronic malnutrition. How humane.
Oohhhhhhh the irony of Arash asking for sources and evidence. hhahahaha. Arash, do i have to make you crawl back into the fetus position and expose the numerous examples of YOU making things up and lying without evidence fatty?
JZ, I have a genuine question for you. I have showed how extensive Arash’s lies are where he just makes things up. He used a holocaust denying website to try to make the point that Stalin killed more jews than hitler (a lie). Do you think he is an embarassment just like Nahid the holocaust denier is an embarassment? Be honest.
“I have shown” is what it should say.
In protest to result of the presidential election, Iranian and non-Iranian students are gathering in front of the LA federal building.
PLEASE NO IRAN FLAG. Write your slogans in English. No provocative word such as coup …
NOTE: Dress code for tomorrow is either green or white Tshirt.
This protest will be covered by major world-wide media.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Time:
11:00am – 1:00pm
Location:
Federal Building, Westwood
Street:
Wilshire and Veteran
City/Town:
Los Angeles, CA
Such a sore loosers! grow up :))
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31344415#31343691
watch 2:10, and look the security agent is beating a student. It seems a lot like Zionists soldiers beating on Palestinians. Howcome all these Iranian government supporters are quiet? Where is the justice that they passionately love to defend around the world?
I don’t know much about Iranian politics, but I was rooting for Ahmadinejad because of Mousavi’s love affair with Rafsanjani. What a douche bag. I’m glad he lost. I’m also disturbed by how Huff Po and some others are framing the result and the stone throwers in Tehran. I also saw the video of Ahmadinejad calling Mousavi a thief. That was the highlight of the election.
Nazanin are you high or just pure moron, there was no election, the results were fixed. How could you vote for a holocaust denier like Ahmadinejad? How could you support a candidate who turned Iran into a crap hole? How could support a guy who ruined any reputation that Iran had in the world’s stage? How could you support a guy who did not do a single good thing for Iran in the last four years? Iranian all around the world are known to be racist for the crap that this idiot has been saying, and you wanted to vote for him? Ok, if you did vote for him is one thing, but the election was stolen, this was anything but an election. It was a simple show.
You’re wrong.
I voted for a candidate whom I don’t agree with regarding the Holocaust, but whom I find to be honest and less corrupt. Ahmadinejad’s views may not be popular or mainstream, but they didn’t contribute to my vote, or most people’s votes. Mousavi has a host of ulterior and dirty motives. Mousavi sucks. And actually, I hope Khamenei deals with him the way he deserves to be dealt with. The only thing worse than Ahmadinejad is Mousavi and Rafsanjani (I call him Fat Bastard) as supreme leader.
So if you’re angry with me because of my vote, that’s fine. But how about, instead of directing your anger at me, consider why Ahmadinejad really won. The residents of Tehran don’t account for all Iran, and their sentiments about being embarrassed about what Fox or CNN report about them do not count for shit.
Ahamdi nejad is Iran’s elected president for second term, and I suggest they change the law that he can be third term president!
Nahid, it just might happen hahaha.
Do you think this election had to do with Iran at all? NO. The way I’m seeing it reported in the US, it seems like this election was supposed to prove to Israel and the US that Iran shouldn’t be attacked because they can elect someone who regrets his revolutionary actions and doesn’t DISlike Israel publicly. Frankly speaking, fuck that. Simple psychotherapy would be cheaper and less dangerous for Iran, Mr. Mousavi. I’m not worried about Ahmadinejad. He’s harmless.
Parisa, if voting took such a toll on these “fragile youth”, maybe they shouldn’t have voted at all. They seem self centered based on their reaction to what happened. Who lights dumpsters on fire for democracy? This is embarrassing.
When millions of people show up to greet him in every city he went, Esfehan, Tabriz, Rasht Ahvaz, Shiraz, Bandar abbas…. so that translate to 25ooo, ooo votes in election day. These morons as usual wants to be pupets and dance for some aggrassive forces.
While election fraud is possible, the most likely explanation of Ahmadinejad’s victory at this point is that over his four years in office he has cultivated a huge base of support among Iran’s rural and lower class population. In addition, he presented himself towards the end of the campaign as a candidate willing to oppose Iran’s notoriously corrupt old-guard clerical power structure, seemingly at some risk to himself. An article in the Guardian by Abbas Barzegar gives an inside view:
http://mideastreality.blogspot.com/2009/06/wishful-thinking-from-tehran.html
Whatever! When every single pol out there pointed that the election was incredibly tight, there was no way in hell Ahmadinejad could have won by a landslide. Do i need to point out to four years ago when Ahmadinejad was not even considered to be a threat any of the candidate, when ever single pole classfied him as the last person among the candidate, and then magically he turned out to be the president.
Ahmadinejad has damaged Iran in the last four years, his report card includes defaming every single Iranian out there, not even that, lets talk about economic aspect of achievments. He has nothing but double digit inflation rate in his report card, not even that, he has done nothing to reinstate Israel’s position and given them an excuse to justify their aggressive policy toward Iran. Iranian knew about it, and they voted for Mousavi.
This election was nothing but a joke
BTW: Nazanin and Nahid, both of you guys are upholding and encouraging the destruction of democracy by asking a supreme ruler to step in and take care of Mousavi. That is not democracy, that’s dictatorship. Iranian democracy (if there ever was one) has been damaged and Iran’s reputation just went into trash. The last thing left of this revolution that once was pride of Iranian people has turned into a scheme.
THIS IS DELICIOUS: http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/14/iran.election/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
Just enjoy how this idiot minimize the events in Iran and blatantly lie to the world. Nahid and Nazanin, enjoy your new leader. 😉
Ahmadinejad did not “magically” win the election four years ago. Do you recall the movement, and I believe its origin was Southern California, which called on Iranians to boycott the election? There’s a word for that, but it’s not magic. It’s called failure.
What’s worse? These people who boycotted four years ago bitching that they got Ahmadinejad (who brilliantly aroused his base to go on and win re-election) OR the fact that they decided to head to the polls, lose without grace, and cause chaos and destruction in Tehran? I am embarrassed by what I am seeing in Iran. I am more disappointed that the US media is not reporting the damage they are doing. This is not how you foster change in a nation or promote dialogue. Do the Mousavi mobs think the Ahmadinejad supporters are going to disappear? I am sick of people ignoring these people and talking about “change in Iran”. Until people can confront them intelligently, it won’t happen. Mousavi is the last person to undertake such a dialogue within Iranian society.
Throwing stones and smashing business windows do not translate into democracy. I hope you’re enjoying the MKO and Reza Pahlavi sparring over who can exploit these stupid people more.
Here you go girl, another decent Iranian, thanks nazanin , you are right, enjoy the picturs
http://www.bornanews.com/Nsite/FullStory/PhotoNews.aspx?Id=278123
“Until people can confront them intelligently, it won’t happen.”
Please tell me, one thing that is intellegent about this joke called “ahmadinejad”, or better yet, show me one thing he has done for Iran? You talk about intellgent, yet every single scientific pole out there mentioned Ahmadinejad to be on the bottom four years ago. There is nothing intellgent about it. Trust me, you should be embarrassed by a leader who act like a monkey, who sound like a monkey, who even walks like a monkey. You should be embarrassed that Iran has become a safe heaven to bigots and holocaust deniers. That’s what you shoul be embarrassed about. Iran today has gained its honor and dignity back at the world’s stage by showing that “WE ARE NOT ALL AHMADINEJAD”
If you want to talk about people beating each other up or acting barbaric, why don’t you review what ahmadinejad was doing to youngsters and beating them up for just trying to live free. Remember the days that he was the governor of Tehran, the crackdowns, OH WAIT, YOU WERE NOT IN IRAN, YOU WERE IN U.S (MOST LIKELY IN CALI, ENJOYING HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION). Ahmadinejad and his joojeh basiji gangs have done more beating, have done more oppression and now people like you are sympathizing and embarrassed? Are you kidding me?
Hey I go to UCLA and yes I live in southern california and I came to this country not too long ago. So please don’t diss Souther CA people. I do appreciate if you were in Iran and live under that rule and try to acquire education under that rule instead of being here and talking out of your you know what. Man, Iranians like you piss me off. Yes I know it’s not democratic to feel that way, but I just do, so spare me the lectures please.
Oh by the way, I had the pleasure of reading what Nahid had posted a while ago, Nazanin you should be proud that it’s Nahid who is backing you especially w/ her extensive support for holocaust deniers. There seems to be a pattern here. Either way, if you like to fight Zionists, fight them knowledge and facs, not lies and distortion of historical events. We are nothing but Nazis and Bigots if we try to deny holocaust never happen. We could sympathize with Palestinian, but we don’t have to do it through stupdity like Nahid.
This lady dose not need any body to back her up, she can do herslf good with no help, Iran is not the country that can shake by few FOGGOLI , just whatch the pictures and be proud of the people, and do not wet yourself Amir Ali
http://www1.farsnews.com/plarg.php?nn=M544153.jpg
Hi Amir. Now you’re assuming things about my biography/personal life to justify why this election result doesn’t satisfy you. I’m sorry that the Holocaust is not the pressing issue for Iranian voters. It’s just an issue that the western media has hared on because of their love affair with framing Iran as a demon state. By Iranian voter, I am talking about the average Iranian living in Iran. The pressing issue for me, living in the US, was that Mousavi is a clown. That goes for his posse as well.
Amir you’re also assuming that your vote is more legitimate than mine because I happen to live in the US and enjoy a certain lifestyle (again, this is an assumption, but I’ll let you run with it if it makes you feel better). If I had been one of these brutalized party goers in Tehran, you’re also assuming that I’d vote for Mousavi. You’re also assuming that party goers/brutalized ones most of all, are so fed up that they voted for a thief and the people behind his agenda.
Do you remember when John Kerry lost in 2004? The day after was a day of national mourning. Personally, I thought Americans were absolute morons for re-electing a man who could not find the nation he invaded illegally on a map. I’m mentioning that day because I don’t recall anyone destroying stores, looting shops, or shedding blood over it.
Again, the better candidate won. He may not be perfect, but he suits the needs of Iran today. I’m sticking by what I said about Mousavi representing a failure; he is NOT qualified to unite the conservatives and reformists.
Amir Ali, I read your other comment. How dare you write that I’m talking out of my “you know what”? I’m sure this is just the passion for democracy leaking out of “your you know what”.
Jamesh kon already with your sensitive Southern California bull. My point about this was plain and simple: the issues that influence the voting behavior of Iranians IN IRAN are far different from the ones you’re worried about. Whenever these outside full time freedom lovers get involved, Iranians suffer the consequences while these douche bags go to wholesome choice and debate whether shah was set up by usa or england.
Mousavi was and is a shady thief who will exploit these mobs to shield himself and fat bastard (Rafsanjani). I have no sympathy for them.
Amir Ali go jump to the ocean, it is easier than live after you read Nzanin’s comments. mamnoon khanoom
I am NOT fighting Zionists. I did not vote for Ahmadinejad because of his views on Israel. I couldn’t care less, actually. Why do you? Because the west condemns them? All I’m saying is, I don’t even think his Holocaust denials, AS THEY ARE REPORTED, have anything to do with the Holocaust at all. It’s just politics and convenient bashing for the douches who are running wild on cable news. It’s all fun until Iran is demonized to the point of invasion. This is also true in Iran, perhaps, where Iranians who do not appreciate Israel’s Iran bashing will vote for the candidate who defies their threats.
One positive outcome from Ahmadinejad’s comments about Israel is that many people are realizing the double standard with regard to foreign & nuclear policies.
Thanks Nahid. Congrats to you. The better candidate won. I’m actually quite happy that Iranians saw through this guy. I was worried at one point.
I also want to finish by saying that the people who are being arrested deserve it. Don’t be fooled by these reports. Have you seen the damage they have done to personal and public property? Who will pay for this? How is this fair? Should they get away with it because one day they woke up and voted, lost, and grew angry. Screw them all.
Ok, you talk about assumption and your only assertion is that those who got beat are party-goers. They are not party-goers, those are simple human who want the basic right of expressing themselves. What kind of argument are you putting forward? Partygoers? Students being murdered in universities are party goers? Women just trying to be free from oppression are party goers? Even if they are party goers according to you, they still have the right to do it because it is their choice, how could you condemn them for wanting to party? As if you don’t go to any parties yourself(yes i am assuming-i’m pretty sure it’s a safe assumption).
With regard to Holocaust, yes it is a very important issue, because it is playing with our reputation around the globe, it is playing with our national security, it is giving arms and power to our enemies in the region. It is allowing aggressors in the region to conduct aggressive acts against us.
With regard to internal affairs, you keep talking about Ahmadinejad has done well and so on and so forth. But you refuse to mention any details, where is it? howcome people are so fed up w/ him? what has he achieved? Oil went all the way to 140 a barrel, and what did Iran gain out of it? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! On top of that, we only got double digit inflation and high cost of living. I guess you would like to blame Zionists for that. The rich got richer, the poor got poorer, and we became the clown of the world. Our only allies in the region are Syria and Chavez. Come on, what happened to us? What were we and what did we become? Now you are sitting here and criticizing me for assumping things about me, yet u have not shown a single shred of detail as to why Ahmadinejad has not been a success. He kept going from city to city saying stupid stuff about Jews and Israel and Holocaust. One stupdity after another stupdity, they closed down the schools and public departments to create huge masses for him in different towns. Come on, enough lying and deciets, how much more do we have to take under this idiot? Do you remember under Khatami, how was Iran’s reputation around the world? Did the media tried to turn Iran into Demog, it only happened after this idiot got elected that allowed the Zionists to use him against us.
Yeah screw them all Nazanin, screw the votes, screw the public pols, screw the scientific methods that are all pointing out to voting freuds. Are you seriously for real? On top of that screw democracy and humanity and human right abuse in Iran. Screw it all!
Sunday, June 14, 2009
If there was an attempted color revolution it failed
Over at Moon of Alabama, the main blogger is suspicious about Mousavi’s sudden return to politics and his indirect ties to the US. And even more than that, his announcement before the polls closed not only that he won, but that if he lost that proved election fraud. Which is actually outrageous behavior.
http://mideastreality.blogspot.com/2009/06/if-there-was-attempted-color-revolution.html
Arnold raises an excellent point. It’s only fair if Mousavi wins. LOL. Toss analysis and reason out the window everyone, because the high and mighty Mousavi must exploit all western prejudice against Iran, as well as the “restless youth”!
Oh nice, another tactic: blame the foreigners. You know what, it might have worked 30 years ago to subdue the masses into accepting tyrany, but come on this whole blame another for your problem has got really old. Yeah Mousavi has ties with Americans, therefore he is horrible, but we got a stupid president who did nothing but defame Iran at world’s stage and literrally destroy Iranian economy, but yeah he does not have ties to Americans, therefore he is a good leader.
Come on Nazanin, grow up, same to you Arnold; Germany has ties with U.S, Israel have ties with U.S, Japanese have ties with U.S, EVEN CHINESE HAVE TIES WITH THE AMERICANS, are they all suffering? Or is it only Iran who would suffer from ties with U.S? Is iran as we like to classify as “tafdeye joda bafteh”? Come on, grow up. Seriously, it is not 1979 anymore. Plus the resless youth are the power behind this country. Not the old farts who screwed up this country. I am sorry but the oldies had their chance and there is not much to show it. The energy behind a government is its youth, you want to just set them asside as irrelevant and restless?! Is this seriously your political mindset?
You still have not answered my question: what has ahmadinejad done for Iran?
Some people would have voted for Ahmadinejad anyway and I am not denying it but there is absolutely no way that he obtained over 24 million votes from the Iranian people. It’s not an accident that the reported number of votes for Ahmadinejad is 24 million. They want to show that he has received more votes than Khatami had previously received and that Ahmadinejad has broken the reformist’s record. I’m going to name just A FEW reasons of why I’m positive that Ahmadinejad has massively cheated in this election.
1.Throughout the entire evening when they were allegedly “counting†the votes, the curves representing the votes were not fluctuating and the ratio of one candidate’s vote to another followed a constant rate. It looked like they were following a formula. Statistically this was close to impossible since one would think that AhmadiNejad would get more votes in villages than in the larger cities.
2. Historically in the previous elections the candidates received more votes in their birth cities. In these elections both Karroubi and Rezaei obtained less votes than Ahmadinejad in their birth places.
3. It is curious that ISNA reported that Moussavi had lost the election in his birth place of Shabestar. People started to discuss the incredibility of the initial reports and guess what? It looks like the initial reports have been reversed!!!!!The numbers released today show that he has won his birthplace.
3. Another disparity is the fact that contrary to previous elections, we were receiving the number of votes without announcing the province it was coming from.
4. Again it is curious that after counting over 20 million votes, they did not report one cancelled vote. It is only at the end of the counting that they announced the number of cancelled votes. This again is in contradiction with common sense and prior history.
5. In numerous locations they had prevented the candidate inspectors from attending the vote count.
6. They had also banned text messaging. Texting was the primary vehicle for communication between the candidate inspectors and the campaign headquarters. It appears the attempt was to prevent the spread of the real facts of the election.
7. According to the official reports, Karroubi has less than one percent of the votes. His votes are even less than the number of the “cancelled votes”. In all the previous elections,his votes were in the Millions. How come he has around 300,000 votes now??????
7. Banning the reformist newspapers and arresting the reformists are other suspicious events that have occurred.
To the Ahmadinejad supporter who is posting here: How dare u criticize the people who’ve been tricked and whose votes have not been counted. It’s naïve at best and totally absurd in my opinion . Many of them are my friends and close relatives. What else can they do other than demonstrating on the streets of Iran? They make fire to get attention and to neutralize the effects of tear gas.
Also, not voting for Moussavi because Rafsanjani is corrupt is one of the most flawed logics I have ever seen.
I am glad that I now know the mentality of some of Ahmadinejad supporters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wrote this in a rush, so please excuse any errors.
I didn’t say my vote was based on Rafsanjani. Mousavi was corrupt. He abused his position as prime minister.
You guys are hilarious. Mousavi is not Ghandi or Nelson Mandela. He had plenty of election observers. They watched the votes counted. They watched the voters come in and celebrate. As usual, a group of Iranians didn’t get what they expected and they feel entitled. Not surprised to see the bull coming out of this at all.
Ahmadinejad is a much better president than Mousavi. I think he’s much better for Iran’s security.
So it is flawed logic to not vote for a candidate who is gutter trash? Who killed, sorry slaughtered when he had the power (the position was all but condemned thanks to him, Mousavi)? Who abused his “connections”? Did you bother to read the Time article Arnold posted? Did you bother to see that Ghorbanifar endorsed this guy? He made millions off of the Iran Contra.
I am so disgusted by some of your postings. I can’t believe you’re making this personal, about me, or about your family/friends. This isn’t about freedom or illegal elections – these people are being exploited by a shameless bastard, Mousavi.
Ahmadinejad’s supporters might be nuts and religious “freaks”, but at least they are just that and nothing more. They are bound to their convictions about the government and their loyalty to the pious candidate. These things Ahmadinejad represents. Don’t pretend to be shocked that they supported him through another victory.