Without having any intention to sound like a “conspiracy theoristâ€, I’d like to take issue with couple of points in NIE report and the Time magazine article sighted above.
1- Apparently, the NIE report says that Iran had a nuke weapon program prior to 2003. Everyone seems to accept it as a “statement of factâ€. I have not seen or heard any approval or denial of that statement from the IRI government. Maybe they did, maybe they didn’t have any nuclear weapons program prior to 2003. I want to see some evidence about the existence (or lack thereof) of actual nuclear weapons program by Iran prior to 2003. Where is the evidence? Why are we blindly accepting what NIE report allegedly tells us? This is an important issue because of the conclusions that are being drawn based on the NIE report.
2- The Time article says: {There was one key finding that the President didn’t discuss and wasn’t asked about during his White House press conference: that Iran had stopped its weapons program “in response to international scrutiny and pressure.” Several intelligence sources told me they considered this the most important finding in the report. “Iran isn’t impervious,” said one. “Diplomatic pressure works. That’s something we simply did not know before.”}
Assuming that Iran did have a nuclear weapons program prior to 2003, why is it thought that stopping the program was due to “international scrutiny†and “diplomatic pressure� After all, when Khomeini drank his poison and ended the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, having witnessed the US support of Saddam’s war against Iran, it may have been prudent for the Ayatollah to start a nuclear weapons program in the 80s or 90’s merely as a security shield against Saddam’s possible future adventures against Iran. So, when US invaded Iraq in 2003 and got rid of Saddam, there was no reason for Iran to continue the weapons program. Pure and Simple. Why does the NIE report, the Time magazine, and the US government take credit for Iran’s halt of the weapon program in 2003 as if it was due to their “international pressures�
Again, without pushing any conspiracy theory, and until I see more facts and analysis about what is being fed to us and why, I reserve judgment about the architecture of the NIE report, and all behind-the-scene dealings and wheelings that went into making the report (let alone publicizing it). I have a hunch that some kind of deal has already been made between Khamanei and the US. As time goes on and the events unfold, we’ll probably start to see what kind of a deal was made by the West/Russians/Chinese to buy the mullahs rather than wiping them out. But I could be wrong.
Curious Joe, I also have many questions, and I also thought that maybe the US and Iran’s big heads had made a deal. But it seems implausible to me now that the US continues to actively seek sanctions against the country, and very aggressive ones at that. Moreover, if we are asking about intelligence, the flip side of all this is also important to consider: Maybe Iran does indeed have a nuclear weapons program that is active now, and maybe the intelligence i wrong on that. For this, of course, we need evidence, and as of yet there is no evidence that shows Iran has an active program. My mere point is that there is a flip side to the important questions you are asking. In another note: ” “Hamas spokesman, Ahmed Yousef, said the group had tried unsuccessfully many times to directly contact US and European Union officials. Israeli Government sources also claim that deposed Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya attempted to contact officials in Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office in the weeks following his poll win.” ”
Without having any intention to sound like a “conspiracy theoristâ€, I’d like to take issue with couple of points in NIE report and the Time magazine article sighted above.
1- Apparently, the NIE report says that Iran had a nuke weapon program prior to 2003. Everyone seems to accept it as a “statement of factâ€. I have not seen or heard any approval or denial of that statement from the IRI government. Maybe they did, maybe they didn’t have any nuclear weapons program prior to 2003. I want to see some evidence about the existence (or lack thereof) of actual nuclear weapons program by Iran prior to 2003. Where is the evidence? Why are we blindly accepting what NIE report allegedly tells us? This is an important issue because of the conclusions that are being drawn based on the NIE report.
2- The Time article says: {There was one key finding that the President didn’t discuss and wasn’t asked about during his White House press conference: that Iran had stopped its weapons program “in response to international scrutiny and pressure.” Several intelligence sources told me they considered this the most important finding in the report. “Iran isn’t impervious,” said one. “Diplomatic pressure works. That’s something we simply did not know before.”}
Assuming that Iran did have a nuclear weapons program prior to 2003, why is it thought that stopping the program was due to “international scrutiny†and “diplomatic pressure� After all, when Khomeini drank his poison and ended the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, having witnessed the US support of Saddam’s war against Iran, it may have been prudent for the Ayatollah to start a nuclear weapons program in the 80s or 90’s merely as a security shield against Saddam’s possible future adventures against Iran. So, when US invaded Iraq in 2003 and got rid of Saddam, there was no reason for Iran to continue the weapons program. Pure and Simple. Why does the NIE report, the Time magazine, and the US government take credit for Iran’s halt of the weapon program in 2003 as if it was due to their “international pressures�
Again, without pushing any conspiracy theory, and until I see more facts and analysis about what is being fed to us and why, I reserve judgment about the architecture of the NIE report, and all behind-the-scene dealings and wheelings that went into making the report (let alone publicizing it). I have a hunch that some kind of deal has already been made between Khamanei and the US. As time goes on and the events unfold, we’ll probably start to see what kind of a deal was made by the West/Russians/Chinese to buy the mullahs rather than wiping them out. But I could be wrong.
Curious Joe, I also have many questions, and I also thought that maybe the US and Iran’s big heads had made a deal. But it seems implausible to me now that the US continues to actively seek sanctions against the country, and very aggressive ones at that. Moreover, if we are asking about intelligence, the flip side of all this is also important to consider: Maybe Iran does indeed have a nuclear weapons program that is active now, and maybe the intelligence i wrong on that. For this, of course, we need evidence, and as of yet there is no evidence that shows Iran has an active program. My mere point is that there is a flip side to the important questions you are asking. In another note: ” “Hamas spokesman, Ahmed Yousef, said the group had tried unsuccessfully many times to directly contact US and European Union officials. Israeli Government sources also claim that deposed Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya attempted to contact officials in Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office in the weeks following his poll win.” ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22901801-2703,00.html
So Hamas acts more and more like Fatah with everyday, both in thuggery and oppression, as well as in seeking to cement occupatin.