The Telegraph: “Assad needs to urgently launch reforms, make peace with the opposition, restore civil order and create a modern state. If he cannot do that, a sad fate awaits him, and we will also be forced to ultimately take some decisions on Syria.â€
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.”
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What is interesting is that Russia owned a military base in Libya, and owns one in Syria. Russia has a solid record of backing away from her own allies. This was Medveyev’s own way of saying we are getting ready to back away from yet another friend of Russia. There is a learning lesson for Iran in all this.
I wonder what the strategic thinking behind Russia’s decision to move away from Syria. Do you know? 🙂
I don’t think this is much more than deals being cut behind close doors. Remember, even at the height of the cold war when Reagan was going to bomb libya, Soviet naval forces departed libyan ports just days before the bombing began.
Russia is currently under pressure both economically becoming dependent on foreign investement, and by the new missile defense system being placed in Easter Europe and the proposed placement of systems in Turkey. Remember, in exchange of not placing any anti-missile systems in Poland, Russia voted against Iran in the last round of UN sanctions. Not to mention that Russia also RECLASSIFIED S300 anit-aircraft system from “defensive” to an “offensive” weapon system in order to deny Iran the transfer of the technology. Therefore, all of this is the same old Russian policy. They know that ultimately they do not have an army that can fight a war (just see how much they lost in Chechnya). So, they use their leverage to cut a deal. Also, one must recall that during the Tehran Conference after the 2nd world war, Russia agreed Iran would be under Western sphere of influence, which is totally counter intuitive to their own long term national interests.
This is why Iran has rejected Russia as a guarantor of nuclear fuel to Iran. Ultimately, Iran does not trust Russia.
What we are now watching is the unfolding of the largest war the mideast has even experienced. The chess pieces are moving into their place. Syria is being engulfed in a civil war that can bring it down, as Sunni fanatics are being shipped there with the assistance of Turkish intelligence. Then, Lebanon will be done with, likely by Israel alone. Meanwhile, anti-missile systems will be placed in Turkey to complete the circle around Iran that already exists. Russia will have no assets to react.
The best way to quell a popular uprising is FEAR. The Arab spring is giving way to sectarian violence and regional warfare. The US cannot keep attacking nations, so we are sending the fanatic mercenaries financed through Saudi oil.
Iran’s only option is to hold firm in Syria, it is the ALAMO.