iPouya

Things are indeed moving fast in Iran and it’s impotant to stay updated. Some important developments: 1. The other conservative candidate, Rezai, has also lodged a complaint similar to Mousavi’s calling the election a fraud. 2. The rally that was banned by the regime today but it went ahead in full effect with the BBC and CNN saying that 100,000 gathered, which is staggering, but it was not “the biggest demonstration in the Islamic republic’s 30-year history.”  I’d say that the MKO organized bigger ones in the spring of 1981 with an estimated 500,000 in Tehran alone (See Ervand Abrahamian’s book, The Iranian Mojahideen). And in 1987, over 1 million protested the massacre of Iranian pilgrims in Saudi Arabia (See Time Magazine’s 1987 “Iran vs The World” cover story). Nevertheless, the BBC is right to call this demonstration a “political earthquake.” See the footage from the event here. Make no mistake about it, although the protests were triggered because of the election results, they have morphed into anti-regime protests attacking the entire system. The Islamic regime is in an impossible situation to say the least, but one thing is certain, this is not like eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War and nor is it like the demonstrations in Ukraine a few years ago. The regime in Iran is very well entrenched and they are most likely preparing a massive crackdown. So far, today one person died in the demonstration, but I believe that is just a taste of what is to come. First, since the protests are not just about the election results, the regime knows that they will continue even if it backtracks and orders a revote. In fact, if he does cancel the election results, it may encourage and even give momentum to the demonstrations to press on. So what that means is that the regime knows that it’s only option is either to watch the protests mushroom or order a crackdown. This situation is more analoguous to the China of 1989 where the regime there ordered the ideolically hardline People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to clear out Tienanmen Square after weeks of student-led demonstrations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) or the Pasdaran are Iran’s PLA and once given the order, they will not show any leniency. So in my opinion, the issue isn’t if, but when will it happen and when it does, do those students have the stomach to carry on after? In 1979, they braved the massacres. We’ll see, stay tuned.

First things first, this is without a doubt the most significant unrest in Iran since the 1997 student-led protests, if not bigger. But lets be clear about one thing, this generation is far from revolutionary. Of course, I wasn’t alive in the 1970s, but I am certain when I tell you that that generation was something extraordinary. Regardless of political orientation, Islamist, Marxist, or nationalist, those revolutionaries were fervently committed to their revolutionary aims and would not hesitate to lay down their lives for their cause.  They braved bullets and massacres… one after another. And up to the run-up to Feb. 11th, 1979, the date of the triumph of the revolution, an estimated 20,000 died. As much as I respect my own generation, I strongly believe that we don’t have the stones to see any protest movement through until the very end. Our amazon.com/BMW/facebook generation, to which I am of course a member, is far from revolutionary like in the 1970s. The 1970s was about self-sacrifice and I just don’t see that amongst our generation today, even though the protests in Iran are very powerful. Also, I think it’s important to note that unlike the Shah’s regime, this regime has mastered the art of making sure that protests don’t spiral out of control into a full-blown sustainable nationwide protest movement. The regime’s ability to use force and its effectiveness in quarantining and isolating protesters is unmatched in recent Iranian history. Furthermore, their access to an ideologically die-hard segment of the population (see Ahmadinejad’s victory rally) provides the regime with crucial support in crucial junctures. This is in stark contrast to the Shah and his regime, which could not even muster the support of the peasantry, the supposed benefactors of the White Revolution, in his final hour on throne. But make no mistake about it, what’s happening in Iran is massive and very very serious. Although it’s still too early to tell how long Mousavi will drag this out, he has already proven a more formidable opponent than former reformist President Muhammad Khatami. When he was president, Khatami cowed in every power struggle with the conservatives in power and refused to draw on his popularity amongst the people to pressure the unelected conservatives to desist from blocking his reforms. Mousavi, however, has lodged a complaint against the election results with the Guardian Council and, more importantly, has made effective and unprecendented use of his popularity by calling on his supporters to continue to protest against the election results.  I think it is also important to note that the issue of Ahmadinejad vs. Mousavi is part of a bigger contest pitting Khamenei against Rafsanjani, which is why Ahmadinejad, a Khamenei loyalist, was attacking Rafsanjani and his sons (he called them all thieves) during his debate with Mousavi, because Mousavi is perceived as being a Rafsanjani loyalist. In other words, the struggle between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi is part of a bigger internal power struggle between Khamenei and Rafsanjani, which is also why Khamenei quickly endorsed the election results. Anyway, although I was late in offering my analysis on the post-election turmoil (I was preoccupied with family events this past weekend) I was covering the events closely and will be frequently posting here. Stay tuned.